Topic Category: World

Special Report — North American defense, Arctic security, and Russian imperial delusions are large interlocking topics. My purpose here is to provide context, linkages, and a broad analysis with some key specifics. In the space permitted, the assessment cannot be comprehensive. But I will examine some of the crucial actual and potential threats to Canada and possible ways to understand, counter, or at least mitigate these.

SPECIAL REPORT—As the United States becomes an ever-greater energy producer, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and other relatively large energy producing countries will be negatively impacted. And with decreasing U.S. dependency on Middle Eastern oil, China, now the world’s largest consumer of energy, will become more influential there. But the biggest impact will be on the United States, which stands to significantly benefit in terms of economic growth, manufacturing output and corporate competitiveness.

As of this writing, separate military offensives by Syrian government forces and jihadist militants from Islamic State (IS) were advancing rapidly on the city of Aleppo, the key remaining urban stronghold of the secular rebel FSA, which was forced to relinquish control of the city of Homs earlier this year. The loss of Aleppo likely will prove to be the death knell of the FSA.

Experts estimate the Chinese have developed more than 1,700 projects in Africa between 2000 and 2011.(1) And National Public Radio recently aired a report detailing China’s growing ambition there, indicating that the continent is not only a place with abundant natural resources, but now a potential giant market for Chinese consumer goods. American businesses should take note of the critical shift in China’s African strategy.

I recently taught a course in China based on my soon-to-be released book, Chinese Companies on the Ground in Latin America. While there, I interacted with Chinese research colleagues and students who hope to be the next Chinese diplomats and managers relocated to Latin America. Their perspectives differ from President Xi’s exuberant declarations and provide a glimpse of the challenges that lie ahead.

Egypt held its presidential election on May 25, and, as seemed a foregone conclusion, the victor was Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the former commander of the armed forces and the leader of the coup that toppled the Islamist government of President Mohammed Morsi in June 2013. The recently retired military leader won 96.9 percent of the vote in a contest with only one other challenger.

As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its commercial and other relationships with Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, Mexico has remained closely tied to the United States, both in economic and security affairs. The degree to which Mexico has served as a “buffer” to the sea change in orientation of Latin America and the Caribbean toward the P.R.C. is due to several factors.

SPECIAL REPORT—Knowing the extent of regulation in the economy is important because regulation has been found to stymie innovation, depress productivity, raise prices, and lower living standards. However, while several studies have measured the cost of complying with the regulatory burden, there has been no attempt to measure the extent of the Canadian economy subject to regulation.

Thailand continues its slow-motion political implosion. The prime minister has been ousted and a new election has been scheduled for July 20, but the latter will settle nothing unless traditional ruling elites are willing to accept a government run by their opponents. If not, the country risks a violent explosion.