President Trump seems to think he is in the midst of a hard-nosed negotiating battle with China, and talking tough is a big part of that. His morning Twitter rants often include barbs aimed at China. And he has a bipartisan batch of legislators cheering him on.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has urged Trump to “hang tough on China,” as “strength is the only way to win.” And Sen. Lindsey Graham R-S.C., has told the president, “We’re behind you!”

President Trump has called out China for unfairly subsidizing its state-owned enterprises, not enforcing intellectual property protections, placing trade restrictions on U.S. firms, and pressuring them to hand over technology in exchange for market access. If these problems are eliminated, more U.S. companies will invest there. But is this what President Trump wants?

Recently, a decades-old video of Donald Trump on “Oprah” circulated, in which Trump offered up all the same trade policy views he holds today: Our trading partners are cheating us, bilateral trade deficits are hurting the U.S. economy, U.S. negotiators have done a bad job with trade deals, and higher tariffs would help the U.S. economy.

I often hear people talk about their difficulties in finding a meaningful job or keeping up with increasing healthcare, housing and education costs. These concerns, along with rising income inequality and a shrinking middle class, are provoking anger. For many, trade and immigration have become convenient villains. But that narrative is wrong. Let me tell you why.

The Pentagon recently released its latest report on the Chinese military, titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019.” Although mandated by Congress, the Department of Defense probably would have produced the volume even if not required to do so. How else would they justify Washington’s massive military expenditures, globe-spanning network of bases, and troop deployments in dozens of nations? China is the best “necessary enemy.”

The policy of free trade — citizens freely buying and selling goods and services across borders without government interference — is under greater attack today than it has been in decades. Despite the fact that American public support for trade and globalization is at an all-time high, politicians, pundits, and a growing cadre of wonks on both the left and the right have become increasingly hostile to the long-standing U.S. political consensus in favor of multilateral trade liberalization.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators may soon reach terms to ease the tariffs that have been uprooting supply chains and straining relations. That would be welcome news to beleaguered farmers, manufacturers, and consumers. But unless that deal compels Beijing to end its predatory technology practices and discriminatory commercial policies, détente will give way to intensified sanctions, collapse of the rules-based trading system, and the onset of an economic cold war. Depressingly, that outcome may be unavoidable, regardless.

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump vowed to strengthen enforcement of existing trade rules and negotiate better trade deals than his predecessors had. With his national security tariffs on steel and aluminum, his safeguard tariffs on washing machines and solar components, his broad trade war with China, and the looming specter of new barriers for automobile imports, President Trump has delivered—for better or worse—on the first promise. On the second, he has little to show.

American free-market capitalism has generated the greatest economic growth the world has ever seen. At the core of its brilliance is its ability to create incentives to produce solutions to problems and to distribute those solutions worldwide. In doing so, it has paved the way for tremendous gains in efficiency and productivity while lifting millions of people out of poverty.

Two back-to-back, stunning economic headlines arrived in less than twenty-four hours. The first appeared on March 5 in the Wall Street Journal: “U.S. Budget Gap Widened 77% in First Four Months of Fiscal Year.” Following on the heels of that shocker, Bloomberg on March 6 ran this headline: “U.S. Trade Gap Surged to $621 Billion in 2018, 10-year High.”