Topic Category: Politics

On the campaign trail and into the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has been a walking, talking billboard for protectionist nationalism. He promised 45 percent tariffs on imports from China, 35 percent levies on imports from Mexico, a requirement that U.S. oil and gas pipelines use only American steel, and the closure of “loopholes” in our Buy American laws to ensure that only U.S. goods and American workers are eligible for federal procurement projects.

Late last month, the Trump administration “self-initiated” antidumping and countervailing duty investigations of imports of aluminum sheet from China. Reactions from media, social media, and the Chinese government seem to suggest these measures are especially provocative, pushing Washington and Beijing even closer to the brink of a trade war.

Can the U.S.-China relationship be saved? Not if President Donald Trump has his way. He recently lashed out wildly at Beijing. The American president acts impulsively, his emotions fluctuating madly, and out of ignorance, his beliefs reflecting a most superficial understanding of the underlying issues. His shortcomings bode ill for maintaining a functioning bilateral relationship between the world’s two most important nations.

Scapegoating trade for problems real and imagined has been a prominent part of American electoral politics for 25 years. So, during the campaign, when candidate Donald Trump referred to the North American Free Trade Agreement as “the worst trade deal ever negotiated,” his rhetoric wasn’t especially alarming.

It wasn’t long ago that Germany’s Angela Merkel was anointed as the last defender of liberal Western values. She was even expected to hold America’s Donald Trump to account. But that vision died with her announcement that she supported prohibiting Muslim women from wearing a “full veil” face covering.

America's alliance structure in Europe and Asia dates back more than six decades. A few of the smaller, less viable organizations collapsed (CENTO, SEATO), but since the end of the Cold War, Washington has expanded rather than contracted its treaty obligations. That includes in the Philippines, which two years ago approved a new agreement providing the U.S. military with bases and joining in exercises.

Barack Obama assumed office promising to restore some of the U.S. foreign policy credibility notoriously squandered by his predecessor. But if Congress doesn’t ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement before Christmas, the president will leave office with American commercial and strategic positions weakened in the Asia-Pacific and U.S. credibility further diminished globally. The specter of that outcome should be keeping the president awake at night.

Rising powers tend to be cocky and pushy. They believe their time has arrived and they want their just desserts—now. So it is with China. Alas, there’s a downside, which Beijing has discovered. Rising powers don’t make many friends. The more obnoxious their behavior, the harder diplomacy becomes.

In the presidential debates and on the campaign trail, U.S. trade policy has taken a beating. Trump would slap a 45 percent tax on all imports from China. Sanders claims that trade agreements have been “a disaster for the American worker.” Cruz perpetuates the myth that Congress has ceded its authority on trade to President Obama. And Clinton would oppose a trade agreement she helped craft.